A practical guide to outguessing everything from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they tr

An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the

We are hard-wired to believe that the world is more predictable than it is. We chase ‘winning streaks’ that are often just illusions, and we are all too pre

A young scholar tells the story of the physicists and mathematicians who created the models that have become the basis of modern finance and argues that these m

If you have trouble estimating cost or schedule for your projects, you are not alone. The question is this: who wants the estimate and why? The definition of es